– Koninklijke Ten Cate NV (KTC NA): In a last minute move, Gilde Buy Out consortium increases offer by 5.7% to €26 from €24.60 and says it is “full and final.” Acceptance period extended by 1 week until Jan 21. Slightly confusing language with respect to shareholder acceptance condition as increased offer language states that i) new offer is aimed to achieve an acceptance level of at least 95% and ii) offer to declare the offer unconditional is subject to shares tendered representing at least 95%. VEB is quoted to be happy with the new offer while Kempen (5.5%) and Van Herk (3.2%) declined to comment as they had not had the chance to review the increased offer. Although it looks that offer will be declared unconditional when it hits 95%, release remains open ended enough that Gilde consortium retains its option to declare it unconditional if it achieves between 66.67% and 95% (this was confirmed to us by Ten Cate IR this morning). However with a) decent enough bump almost implying a 55% premium to what would be unaffected trading price (and no further 3rd parties having shown interloper interest since) and b) previous Dutch tender offer getting higher than 95% at end of acceptance periods (Exact Holding: 99.6%; Nutreco: 98.4%; Prosensa:96%; HES Beheer: 97%; Ziggo: 95.6%; Unit4: 98.8%; DE Master Blenders: 95.3% and revised Mediq: 96.1%); this revised offer is now on full course to be successful (with high 85-98% expected shareholder acceptances, as still limited chance for some shareholder pushback from Kempen or Van Herk); with offer settlement latest 28 January (latest 5 trading days after closing date).
– Home Retail Group (HOME LN): Sainsbury reports better than expected numbers over Christmas with Q3 retail sales up 0.8% (excl fuel) and like-for-like retail sales -0.4% (excl fuel;consensus -0.6%). Concurrent with numbers statement, Sainsbury’s also released a full 20 page presentation for its possible Home Retail acquisition. Although numbers are largely irrelevant for this situation, full Home Retail presentation focus shows very serious commitment by Sainsbury’s in being successful of any Home Retail bid. Would buy some today (and flip tomorrow) given limited downside in owning Home Retail before its own trading statement tomorrow (bad numbers would imply lower resistance to Sainsbury’s offer; good numbers would decrease fundamental downside) .